Verbalism Personified

Poverty Chooses

Fed up with elitism, nepotism and rampant corruption within the ruling Iranian elite, there is a likely chance that the poor and oppressed masses will elect a hardliner for the Iranian presidency.

Iranian voters will have only two options to choose from when the nation goes to the polls tomorrow. Whatever anyone says about the legality, or the lack of, about the election, the country will know soon which of two choices its voters will have made.

For one, the re-invented moderate and former president, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, 70, espouses privatisation, cautious liberal reforms, negotiations over the nuclear program and overtures to the United States. The other is a hardline conservative, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 49, the Mayor of Tehran, ex-military serviceman and son of a blacksmith. He advocates a state-controlled economy with subsidies and handouts, a reverse of cultural reforms, the continuation of Iran's nuclear program and being tough with the Americans.

Mr. Ahmadinejad sent his adversaries scrambling when he blasted out of nowhere to claim second place in the first round of the presidential run-offs last week. His skillful video campaign captured the imagination of Iran's lower class, or just about anyone who has become disenfranchised with the level of corruption and ineptitude of the ruling elite.

Mr. Ahmadinejad presents himself as a working class man. Video footage of him in his modest office, conducting his affairs just like any other guy constrasts with the high-handed and non-accountable methods of the Iran's ruling elite. A large majority of people buy into Mr. Ahmadeinejad, whom they hope would bring social justice and restore the true meaning of the Iranian revolution by exalting the poor and oppressed.

In the other camp, confidence in the favourite, Mr Rafsanjani, was shattered last week when the initial round of voting returned just a sliver of an edge against Mr. Ahmadinejad. For all his moderate expositions, Mr. Rafsanjani is unfortunately tainted by his membership in the Iranian Revolutionary Council and by his personal wealth, whom many see as another crony of the country's all-powerful hardline elite. The outcome should be clear to all that this vote reflects not so much the support for Mr. Ahmadinejad's religious conservatism or his isolationist foreign policy, but rather for his social status, humility and honesty.

Currently, Iran's burgeoning working class derive little or no benefit from Iran's oil assets. Currently trading at USD59 a barrel, proceeds from oil sales disappear into corruption and mismanagement, widening the divide between the small urban and political elite with the majority poor.

It is this very divide that the first revolution was supposed to have addressed. However, as with all autocratic governments, the divide has only become wider. With a generation of young people coming of age to a retro-stagnant future, Iranian society stands on the brink of an implosion unless economic and social reforms are implemented. This would be hard to do, as outgoing PresidentMohammed Khatami found to his disappointment, especially when the hardline religious council, headed by Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has the final say in everything.

With the first-round result looking tenuous, it is unlikely that many would come out in support of Mr. Rafsanjani when most legible voters stayed away the first time. While it is true that most of these voters are reform-minded, it will take more than their misplaced disappointment with outgoing President Khatami to bring them the reforms and freedom they so deperately desire.

posted by Teutoburg @ 1:55 AM