Prelude to Disaster?
With the American dollar weakening against the Singaporean and Australian, it seems like a good opportunity to buy in on the cheap while anticipating a global economic resurgence in Two Thousand and Five.
Or is it?
Could this slide be attributed to American fiscal policy, that if left unaddressed, be ultimately its undoing?
After the Second World War, the dollar has been the leading international currency by which nations trade and base their foreign reserves on. However its dominant role cannot be taken for granted. If America keeps on spending and borrowing at its present pace, the dollar will lose its mighty status in international finance.
That status is certainly high privilege. Not only does the US Federal Reserve print the world's reserve currency, America can borrow on far better terms than any other country on earth. If you were given such a priviledge, you'd take care to hang on to it. At present, America doesn't seem to be taking that priviledge seriously.
What will it cost?
Over the last three years, the dollar has fallen thirty five percent against the Euro and twenty four to the Yen. This slide is indicative that America has an unacceptable practice of rampant government borrowing, consumer spending and bulging a current-account deficit big enough to bankrupt any other country.
This makes a devaluation inevitable. However policymakers are more than happy to let the dollar slide further as an attractive option for a heavily indebted America. Yet this move is not only dangerous, it is bad for investor confidence.
A second troubling sign is that the global financial system has become a giant money press due to America's easy-money policy. Total global liquidity is growing faster than ever before. Emerging economies that peg their currencies against the dollar, are amplifying the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy by artificialy devaluing their currencies as they print local money to buy dollars. This gush of liquidity flows into equity and real estate prices around the world, inflating a series of asset-price bubbles.
America's current-account deficit is at the heart of these concerns. The deficit is predicted to rise to eight hundred and twenty five billion by Two Thousand and Six, or six point four percent of America's GDP. Optimists argue that foreigners will keep financing the deficit because American assets offer high returns and a haven from risk. However private investors have already turned away from low-yield dollar assets and have pursued higher returns from Europe and Japan. Also a sliding currency can hardly be regarded as a wise investment.
In a free market, the dollar would be far weaker without the massive support of Asian central banks. But such support has its limits, and the dollar now seems likely to fall further. In economic terms, it amounts to a disaster.
Periods of dollar decline have often been unhealthy for the world economy. Some would argue, like in the late nineteen eighties, the falling dollar had few ill-effects on America's economy. But it played a big role in inflating an asset bubble in Japan by forcing Japanese authorities to slash interest rates.
This time round, it seems that everybody is trying to blame someone else. America says its external deficit is mainly due to sluggish growth in Europe and Japan, and to the fact that China is pegging its exchange rate too low. Europe, alarmed at the “brutal” rise in the euro, says that America's high public borrowing and low household saving are the real culprits.
There is some truth to both these claims. China and other Asian economies should let their currencies rise, relieving pressure on the euro. It is also true that Asia is partly to blame for America's consumer binge as its central banks' large purchases of Treasury bonds have depressed bond yields, encouraging households in the United States to take out bigger mortgages and spend the cash. Europe also needs to grudgingly accept, that a weaker dollar will be a good thing if it helps to shrink America's deficit and curb the risk of a future crisis. At the same time, Europe is also right when it says that most of the blame for America's deficit lies at home. America must cut its budget deficit. This is certainly not an option as a cheaper dollar and higher American savings are both needed if a global financial meltdown is to be avoided.
Another way?
It is certain that American policymakers are relying on a depreciating dollar to solve all their problems. Unfortunately this is dangerously short sighted as it leaves the global economy flapping in the wind and will ultimately prove to be far more painful than imagined.
America must reduce its current-account deficit to a level that foreigners are happy to finance by buying more dollar assets. This in turn would persuade existing foreign creditors to hang on to their vast stock of dollar assets. At an estimated eleven trillion, this is not chump change. If the dollar falls by another thirty percent, it will wipe trillions off the value of their holdings. That would essentially be the biggest default in history, destroying faith in the American dollar in the process.
The dollar’s loss of reserve-currency status would send America’s creditors calling. Once that happens, the dollar will depreciate further causing bond yields to soar. This in turn would result in a deep recession. Americans favoring a weak dollar should be careful what they wish for. Reducing the budget deficit is a vastly cheaper alternative.
The Language of Lust
"Feel my cunt..."
She purred with her face inches from mine. At that very moment, I felt the heat build in my loins as I tasted the lust in her breath. That naughty gleam in her eyes made the moment so visceral and nakedly arousing.
For a word that is supposedly crude and offensive when blurted out by a man, just seems like the kind of tasteless vulgarity that you'd expect from the uneducated and uncultured. I for one, have had to use it on a few deserving individuals at one time or another. I’m not proud of it though. But it was most effective given the situation and their level of sophistication.
In this instance however, the effects were indeed stunning. This is the first time that I’ve heard a woman use the 'C' word to 'communicate' the essence of what she wants.
Women have said many things to me in the past. Much of the language of love is beautiful, sensual and nurturing. However there were only a few who weren't shy about articulating the language of lust. In addition to the way they walk and talk, they are able to employ it to spectacular effect.
We are not talking about the
Rodgers and Hammerstein notion of romance, mind you. That's for your mom and pop’s generation. We’re talking about women who were confident of their sexuality and comfortable with their bodies and will tell you how they want to be touched. That's just the right combination that enhances a woman's sexual appeal and in my books it certainly makes her oh-so-ravishing.
However that doesn't mean that anything said will induce the right magic. Talking dirty is an art. I’ve had things said to me in the heat of passion that kill the mood entirely, while others have been able to stoke the fire of anticipation for that night of magic. More of the time what a woman says in bed is an indicator of how liberated or inhibited she is.
Vagina sounds clinical and detached, while
down there is a worse indicator that she is uncomfortable about that part of herself.
Pussy, and I’ve heard this pretty often, is common like candy that you hand out. Unfortunately like candy, there isn't much class attached to it.
Hole effectively reduces her bodily worth. Much like the neighborhood drive-through-where-anything-goes, it is hardly inviting.
But now that I’ve had
cunt, everything pales in comparison. That's one word coming from a gutsy woman who knows how to use it.
Excuse me, are you a G-Star slut?
Today marks the first time in seven years since I've put on a pair of jeans. All credit going to Joelle as we headed out to the newly revamped Tangs on Orchard.
For the last few months, through our numerous conversations over lunch, she would expouse and emphasize the merits of G-Star Denim over all other brands. Her lists of reasons are no doubt compelling, from the choice of fabric, weave, cut and style. Hailed from the Netherlands, you've got to hand it to G-Star to know their denim.
So armed with the above assurances, I knew that I was in safe hands no matter what the outcome. As it was an early Saturday morning with the crowds making their way out, Joelle and I were trying on pair after pair in the search for that fit.
As a starter for my first pair, I chose a low-rise, stone-washed straight-cut. Going from the size thirty four down to thirty two, I settled for a thirty one when it hung snugly from my hips. Joelle stepped out in a size twenty eight. With zips on the pockets and leg cuffs, she looked mighty fine in them.
But the realization that she had three pairs made her balk at plonking down cash for another. I assured her that she could revisit the idea a month or two from now. As this was a new item this season, there would be plenty in tow when she decides to return for them.
Garry the assistant was invaluable with his insights and suggestions. And while he offered the idea of signing up for the priviledge card, we would have had to recommend our friends into a combined purchase to qualify. Scratching our heads until it hurt, it wasn't long before we concluded that we did not have G-Star sluts for friends.
But all was not lost as we went through Tangs viewing and sampling the select items that were on display. As the store was clearly repositioning themselves to the younger market, everything was rightly trendy.
Joelle lamented her lack of opportunity to wear such exquisite items. Weather not withstanding, I told her that there are ways around it. Reinforcing her own mantra of quality, style and flair, she could bring off a T-shirt,
G-Star jeans and a pair of
Birkenstock flip-flops with ease. And look great in them too.
Run for your Life: The Marathon Man
With the
Singapore Marathon less than three weeks away, I've been piling on the milage in the run-up to the big day.
Unfortunately I did not run a mile when I was at home. My shoes, which came along for the ride, didn't earn their keep.
So what to do after spending fourteen days eating, drinking, sleeping and travelling? I've implimented ten-kilometer runs during the weekdays and two-hour runs on the weekends.
From now till Friday, Third December, I will have a chance if I take my daily runs up to twenty kilometers.
The worst case scenerio is that I opt down to the half-marathon category on race day.
But half measures don't seem satisfying at all. I'm determined to make this my second marathon in Singapore. So regardless, I will plod all the way to the finish line if I have to.
Apart from that, is there anything else that will go the distance for a marathon man?
None whatsoever.
Two hot Chicks!
Coming out of a wonderful dinner at Senso along Club Street, Anna and I headed over to Zouk to dance the night away. Prior to that we had met up with Hanna for pool at Orchard Cineplex. As Wei Kong was already at Zouk with his friends, nothing seemed out of the ordinary when we arrived.
Retrospectively, the music that night was below average. It was clear that the DJ was making too many 'rest' stops in between while failing to pick up the pace with choice beats and rhythms. If anyone was waiting for a pick-up the whole night, they were to be disappointed.
But not that it mattered anyway. Anna is such a terrific dancer, it doesn't matter what kind of music is in play. She has that way of moving and swaying that never fails to turn heads. I love the way she dances. And she knows it.
Through the flashing lights and throbbing music, I noticed two girls dancing on a platform above me. Dressed in jeans and tube tops, they were gyrating gently to the beat. Though they were not drop-dead gorgeous, they were good looking enough to warrant attention. Given that they looked like they had been poured into the clothes they were wearing, it wasn't long before other guys and girls began crowding around for a better view.
One of Wei Kong's friends, who had also noticed the two girls, came over and exclaimed bravely that they were hot. From his facial expression, it was obvious that he would take them home if he could. But he had failed to notice an entire sequence prior to making his declaration.
At one point the girl behind moved forward to caress her partner in front. Not that it was a big deal as this form of physicality was common in itself. But the clincher was when she proceeded to ring and rim her partner's navel before digging gently into it. It was quick and it lasted a couple of seconds. If these two were friends, that one act certainly shatters the notion.
As I relayed the incident by shouting above the din to the hapless guy in front of me, his eyes grew wide with astonishment and then narrowed with guarded skepticism. Could my eyes have played tricks on me? Not a chance. As I was three or four feet away from these girls, there is no mistaking the gesture of the index finger rimming and digging someone's navel. It was dark at Zouk. But not that dark.
Chicks digging each other is the other trick that turns me on. Recounting it to Anna later, she listened with a knowing smile when I told her that the whole incident seemed rather erotic and arousing.
What else can I say? I'm just a simple guy with only one thing on my mind.
Back from the Grave
Just when you think that you've heard the last of
Scorpions and their played-to-death single,
Still Loving You, one pops up to grill your ears again.
Out at IMM with
Otterman, we stopped by
Daiso for two-dollar fish and butterfly nets. As he needed them for a crab expedition, these would come in handy.
No sooner had we stepped in, the guitar cords of that notororiously familiar song came chiming out of the in-store speakers. As I sighed to myself, Otterman seemed to perk up as memories of his childhood came flooding back.
"They're playing this in a department store?", I asked excruciatingly. "Can't they just put the radio on?" Whereby Otterman defended that they had
performed with the
Berlin Philharmonic. And that was an achievement in his books. Had Maestro
Herbert von Karajan stopped rolling in his grave, I wondered?
It turned out to be a very bad Mat-Rocked cover that had returned from the grave to mangle the very operatic essence of the song. Maybe the store was trying to skim on the song royalties by playing fourth-rate covers. I don't know. But when Otterman painfully admitted that it was 'very bad', I knew there was hope for him yet.
Now whether Otterman made
good use of those nets is another matter.
iPodding Kumar
It was expected of course, or thereabouts. My boss came to me yesterday morning and whipped out a shiny new
20G iPod from his trouser pocket.
It was apparent from his grin that the wall of reason had been bulldozed by his son’s insistence on having “one of those”. No coincidence that my boss had came asking about them prior to me flying home.
In the age of consumerism and indulge-your-child-to-death, if your kid comes asking for
stuff, there’s always a good chance that they will end up getting it.
So we investigated his son’s listening habits and after assertaining that it wasn’t going to be a frivolous purchase, we talked about expanding its possibilities for use beyond portable music making.
Now my boss is a man of means. So buying the iPod was more a question of ‘how long before you succum to your kid’ rather than ‘why does he need it?’
Fast-forward two weeks. We tried it out for the first time. I’ve never touched an iPod beyond listening to it and navigating with the Click Wheel.
As all iPods are initially formatted for Macintosh, it would have to be reformatted for use on Windows. My boss had purchased it a week earlier but couldn’t do anything because he was running a non-supported
version at home. His son had by then, resigned himself to just polishing the shiny back of the iPod.
It wouldn't mount on my Dell via USB 2.0. Downloading and installing the latest firmware update didn’t help and with the firewire connector at home, we couldn’t connect it to the PowerBook either.
As we manhandled a possible lemon, my boss took it to the nearest Apple Centre for assistance. Even though it was determined to be in working order, they did not have a PC to reformat it.
Along the way, he went home and came back with the firewire connector, eager for another crack at a firewire-enabled PC at work. Miraculously, the firmware installer recognized the iPod and the option to reformat for PC appeared.
Then it was merely a matter of connecting it back to my Dell and transferring songs. My boss’ eyes bulged when he sifted through my three and a half-thousand song music library.
Albums from
Linkin Park,
Bryan Adams and
Guns N' Roses were transfered. Symphonies by
Beethoven and ragas by the
Imrat Khan were thrown in the mix, apparently an attempt to educate his son musically. Grinning from ear to ear, my boss finally had something to show for his efforts.
Thinking back on what had happened, I was pretty sure we had missed a step somewhere. Even connecting via USB 2.0 on a PC was to have been sufficient for a reformat. We knew that to be correct as the iPod was drawing power when connected.
Not every PC owner has firewire and certainly Apple would not have expected everyone to install a PCI firewire card just for this purpose. A look through the documentation didn’t stipulate this either. So where did we go wrong?
But there was no time for reflection. This morning, my boss came with news that his son was annoyed that
Jet and the almighty
Metallica had been left out. Interestingly enough, I had offered these yesterday. But our all-doting father decided that his son wasn't 'that advanced yet'.
And how long before his son wants one of
these to go with his iPod?
Now! Now!
Is the answer to people asking "When? When?"
Mozilla finally released mile-stone version 1.0 of its famous browser,
Firefox.
Full featured with
tabbed browsing and lots of
bug fixes on this release, the browser runs on version 1.7.5 of the Mozilla engine.
Those adventurous enough for the
Nightly Builds will find these cutting-edge builds running on version 1.8a5.
So
download your copy today and take back the web!
The Aftermath
Well the holiday is over. As we look through the wreckage of our credit card bills online, it was as if a bomb had gone off. The decimal point seems further away from the dollar sign than normally is the case.
Claire basically received a thirty percent discount to the dollar while poor me had to cough up an additional twenty five. But playing host to the greatest city in the greatest country on earth, I was going to be generous. After all, I was indirectly selling the city I call home. And if she decides to relocate on an opportunity, that would be perfect. Good thing is that I had a surplus leftover. So things aren't that bad.
The single most expensive item we paid for was the IndianPacific train ride.
Yarra Valley came next. Shoes third. But it was the bills for dining and what-have-you that added up the total. In addition, my plane ticket wasn't paid for. Though Makybe Diva had been a win at Flemington, she was just one zero off the mark that could have paid for the whole adventure.
So choosing to structure the outstanding bill, all will be paid off in a couple of months. In doing so, I will not have to dig into my savings and keep my monthly savings schedule on track in the months to come. Claire had since settled it all in one go. Rich little girl that she is.
No Way Out
Making my way to the office this morning seemed like a whole new experience. It even felt like I was walking into a new job. "What am I supposed to do now?" I wondered. This was clearly a good sign that I was starting out the next five months mentally refreshed and physically recharged.
It would have a been a very bad thing had I chosen to keep tabs by digging into my e-mail. And with the bulk of the exam preparations being run on electronic correspondence at this stage, I would have been doing myself a dis-service by not leaving events seven hours away well enough alone. That is why my PowerBook was never used for the entire duration. It had made the return journey to Singapore hibernating in my Crumpler.
But reality catches up with you. A look into my Inbox revealed over three hundred and fifty messages. My instant reaction was to call my travel agent to book another flight out of Singapore. Thankfully though, my late night efforts in plugging gaps prior to flying, paid off. My colleagues had taken up the slack effortlessly and made short work of the contingencies, reducing most of the message exchange for my information only. I am grateful and lucky to be working with such a team. Without them, I would not have been at ease even on holiday.
I, Depressed
With Claire many miles away by now, I spent the remaining day cleaning the house and weeding the garden. Suddenly, I was enveloped by that all familiar silence as I pottered around.
How about some Bach? No, I thought. This kind of solitude is a rare commodity and should be indulged. These two weeks were spent on the move, eating, drinking and in and around people. So better to relish it and stock up before selling crazy back in the office.
Wonderful is the fact that I didn’t even think about work, no doubt that we will be entering the busiest phase with the end of the semester. There will be tons of email waiting for me, plenty of rabid people to put down and not to mention task force meetings and what-have-you.
The orchestra is scheduled to perform in New York in the first quarter Two Thousand and Five. Jon and I had discussed our plans briefly and it should be a good time for another quick get-away. Ivetta will be performing with them as well. But for now, it isn’t certain if Scott or Martin will be there. It would be a great chance for a reunion of sorts. However that's in the future and it will be another five months before Claire and I will see each other again. But next time round, it’ll be her turn to show me the sights of New York.
Back to the present, wishing that we could just have another week, she sooths that the months will pass quickly enough. Sigh... Why can't we have just one more week?! That's wishful thinking, boy.
With another forty-eight hours to go, my depression will begin very shortly.
Possums and Hot Air Balloons
This was actually Plan B.We decided that if the weather was going to be wet and cold, we would head to Sydney for the weekend. Fortunately, Victoria was blessed with twenty degree weather and sunshine after being battered by cold, rain and wind.So what to do and where to go?Once you've shopped at one shopping centre, eaten at a restaurant or walked down a boulevard, you've done them all. No doubt Melbourne offers many of the best treats but a mini get-away to the Yarra Yalley was shining as brightly as a log cabin fire on a cold night.The Kangeroo Ridge Retreat came highly recommended. Set on fifty hectares of bushland, it offered the perfect combination for sights, food and wine. Booked for two nights, we rented a car and drove up to Healesville. Though there was a provision to cook your own food, we dispensed with the idea on this get-away!What greeted us was nothing short of amazing. Perched on a hill, the cabin overlooked some really incredible views. Floor to ceiling glass windows and sliding doors gave an unobstructed view of the valley below. With so much privacy and greenery around, we left the Roman blinds up the entire time we were there. One could go naked or soak in the spa without anyone being the wiser.On the first night, Claire was woken by scratching sounds. An investigation revealed a pair of possums making a house call at the balcony. Our nocturnal visitors had come to welcome us. Olga told us the next morning that Jack and Jill are the local neighbors who made house calls to visitors. Potentially a menace, Jack and Jill were 'adopted', fixed, tagged and kept under control in a tree house.Within the vacinity, we went hiking and sampled wine from TarraWarra Estate, bringing back a couple of reds for friends. But the clincher was being up in a hot air balloon. For an hour, we were looking across the entire Valley with acres of forest and hills. It was so breathtakingly beautiful that it was difficult coming down, literally, from that kind of high.It was a regretful feeling to have to drive away from it all. But coming away satiated and refreshed, we knew that we had made one of the best decisions so far.
